This chart shows how badly the census could undercount people of color

The US Census has always undercounted people of color. But in 2020, the census is about to take a huge — and possibly intentional — step backward.

The US Census has always undercounted people of color. But in 2020, the census is about to take a huge — and possibly intentional — step backward.

There are two big reasons why, and both have to do with the Trump administration.

The first is the effort has been underfunded. To reduce costs, the Census Bureau introduced a new online survey method, but had to cancel two of the three tests of the new system in 2018 because they didn’t have the funding.

The other is the Trump administration’s efforts to add a question about citizenship, with the rationale that it’s needed to enforce the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Census experts worried that it would reduce the response rate from undocumented communities — and it turns out this might’ve been by design. New files from deceased Republican strategist Thomas Hofeller show that he studied the effects of a citizenship question and found that it would electorally benefit white Republicans. He subsequently advised the Trump administration to add the question.

So how much will this affect the 2020 count?

According to a new report from the Urban Institute, the census is on track to severely undercount people of color — even more so than the past two surveys.

This chart looks at how the 2020 census would perform if it was conducted at 2010 levels, then compares it to the actual projections using the census planning documents. The effects of the citizenship question aren’t included.

This chart shows how badly the census could undercount people of color

This next chart looks at how severe the undercount would be if the 2020 census performed on the lower end of the Census Bureau’s expectations, and it takes into account the potential chilling effect from the citizenship question:

This chart shows how badly the census could undercount people of color

Why do undercounts matter? Because the data is core to our democracy.

Let’s back up for a second: Why all the hubbub about this undercount?

The Constitution requires a census every 10 years because it’s the data that determines how much electoral power each community gets. When a certain group is undercounted, it essentially means they are being apportioned less political power.

And it tends to be vulnerable populations that are undercounted. These are people who are harder to find, more transient, less trustful of government, and less tied to communities. Here’s how much black and Hispanic voters have been undercounted in every census since 1950. Basically, they’ve always been less represented than white people.

This chart shows how badly the census could undercount people of color

There are ways to statistically adjust for these miscounts, using something called “sampling.” But the Supreme Court has said sampling can’t be used to apportion seats in the House of Representatives, though it left room for sampling to be used for state redistricting and apportionment of federal funds to states.

What that means is that we’re left to this imperfect process to determine how much representation everyone gets in government. But when our government doesn’t invest in the process — and actively sabotages it for political gain — it further compromises the legitimacy of what is supposed to be an objective count.

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